"THE CLASH FOR DOMINANCE BETWEEN THE USA AND CHINA".
Een oude vriend van mij Peter Schönherr , die in zijn werkzame leven veel met internationale betrekkingen van doen had, heeft kortgeleden een lezing gehouden. Een lezing over het verschuiven van de politieke macht van het Westen naar het Oosten.
Hij gaf mij toestemming om dit relaas op het Blog te plaatsen. De tekst is uiteraard qua inhoud onberoerd gelaten. Wel heb ik de vrijheid genomen om het geschikter voor de Blog lezer te maken door bepaalde in de tekst beschreven situaties met een illustratie te larderen.
Peter Schönherr peterschonherr@live.nl
2017-09-25
When we look at the other side of the Atlantic, we see president Trump who has promised "To make America great again".
When we look to the east - beyond Poland - we see president Poetin who has promised "To make Russia great again".
And when we look even further east, we see president Xi Jingping promising "To make China great again".
A recipe for possible disaster!
As I only have limited time, I have chosen tonight to focus on the USA and China.
Why?
Because we witness between these countries a phenomenon as old as history itself: A rising power - China - threatens to displace a ruling one - the USA.
A recent study by Harvard university into 16 comparable situations during the last 500 years, has concluded that 12 of these 16 situations have resulted in war.
Not a very encouraging result!
Why?
Because we witness between these countries a phenomenon as old as history itself: A rising power - China - threatens to displace a ruling one - the USA.
A recent study by Harvard university into 16 comparable situations during the last 500 years, has concluded that 12 of these 16 situations have resulted in war.
Not a very encouraging result!
Let me first say a word about the rise to power of the US.
You are all aware of the history of the US, so no need to repeat this.
But perhaps you don't know that the foundation of this rise to power was laid by Teddy Roosevelt.
Roosevelt came into power in 1897, first as naval undersecretary and later as the 26th. president of the USA.
Although at that time the US was just emerging on the world stage, Roosevelt was deeply convinced that the next century was to be the American era.
And he did everything to make his dream come true.
First he built a mighty seapower, then kicked out the Spanish from the Western Hemisphere and brazenly challenged the British and the Germans.
Acquired Puerto Rico, Guam, the Philippines and Panama to build a canal.
Unrelentingly, Roosevelt formed his country into a worldpower.
Which later - as we all know - would become the one and ónly worldpower.
And he did everything to make his dream come true.
First he built a mighty seapower, then kicked out the Spanish from the Western Hemisphere and brazenly challenged the British and the Germans.
Acquired Puerto Rico, Guam, the Philippines and Panama to build a canal.
Unrelentingly, Roosevelt formed his country into a worldpower.
Which later - as we all know - would become the one and ónly worldpower.
Most Americans still live with this idea.
Being the biggest and the strongest is - so to say - part of their national identity and reason for great pride.
Well, they are in for a - very - cold - shower!
Within the timespan of a single generation, a country that hardly existed in international economics, has jumped to the top spot.
In 1980 China's GDP was $ 300 billion, in 2015 it was $ 11 trillion.
When we look at sheer size of both economies, the IMF has concluded that China has already surpassed the US in 2014.
And with such lightning speed! 10 years earlier it was only half the size of the American economy.
As the Chinese per capita income is rapidly rising, the Chinese population has become the largest consumer of its own products.
China not only is the world's biggest car manufacturer but also the biggest car market.
One can say the same for art sales and luxury good like Hermès, Louis Vuitton and - of course - Swiss watches.
We all know that America's transport infrastructure is in dire straits. Not in China: next to building 70.000 miles of highways during the last 20 years, the country has more high-speed rail tracks than the rest of the world combined.
Next to all these impressive accomplishments, China has secured for itself a worldwide network of suppliers of essential elements for its uninterrupted growth: oil and gas, minerals, food, etc.
Equally impressive is China's progress in human development.
Equally impressive is China's progress in human development.
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| America in Decay |
A generation ago 90 out of 100 Chinese had to live on $ 2,- a day. Today this has come down to only 3%.
Life-expectancy has doubled to 76 years and a staggering 95% of population is literate.
These are not figures from some shady Chinese statistics office, these are Worldbank figures.
With the danger of boring you, China has also made gigantic steps in education, science, technology and innovation.
Among the top ten schools of engineering in the world, the US and China each have four.
And a last one: China's top supercomputer is 5 times faster than the American one.
As this is all very impressive, I should not forget to add that theft of intellectual property is contributing extensively to the Chinese success story.
On this subject previous FBI director James Comey must have said: "There's only two types of big corporations in America. Those who have been hacked by the Chinese and those who don't YET knów that they have been hacked by the Chinese!"
A completely other quote comes from Chairman Mao : "Power grows out of the barrel of a gun." The present leadership in China agrees wholeheartedly.
Although China's yearly military budget is only 2% of its GDP (American is more like 4%), three decades of double-digit economic growth have also meant far more money for military expenditure.
The most authoritative assessment of the changing balance of military power in the region, is a 2015 RAND Corporation study, called:
"The US - China Military Scorecard."
The report finds that by 2017 China will be stronger or at least equal in already 6 of 9 areas of conventional capability, like achieving air superiority or launching attacks on air bases or surface targets.
RAND concludes: Also in the military the supremacy of America is a thing of the past!
And if i may quote Harvard Prof. Graham Allison : "Like its economic progress, China's military advances are rapidly undercutting America's status as a global hegemon and are forcing US leaders to confront ugly truth about the limits of American power." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_T._Allison
The logical question now is of course: "What are China's objectives with all this economic and military might?"
Is it preparing for World War III?
No, not if the Chinese can help it and to understand this, lets go back for a moment to China's unique history.
These are not figures from some shady Chinese statistics office, these are Worldbank figures.
With the danger of boring you, China has also made gigantic steps in education, science, technology and innovation.
Among the top ten schools of engineering in the world, the US and China each have four.
And a last one: China's top supercomputer is 5 times faster than the American one.
As this is all very impressive, I should not forget to add that theft of intellectual property is contributing extensively to the Chinese success story.
On this subject previous FBI director James Comey must have said: "There's only two types of big corporations in America. Those who have been hacked by the Chinese and those who don't YET knów that they have been hacked by the Chinese!"
A completely other quote comes from Chairman Mao : "Power grows out of the barrel of a gun." The present leadership in China agrees wholeheartedly.
Although China's yearly military budget is only 2% of its GDP (American is more like 4%), three decades of double-digit economic growth have also meant far more money for military expenditure.
The most authoritative assessment of the changing balance of military power in the region, is a 2015 RAND Corporation study, called:
"The US - China Military Scorecard."
The report finds that by 2017 China will be stronger or at least equal in already 6 of 9 areas of conventional capability, like achieving air superiority or launching attacks on air bases or surface targets.
RAND concludes: Also in the military the supremacy of America is a thing of the past!
And if i may quote Harvard Prof. Graham Allison : "Like its economic progress, China's military advances are rapidly undercutting America's status as a global hegemon and are forcing US leaders to confront ugly truth about the limits of American power." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_T._Allison
The logical question now is of course: "What are China's objectives with all this economic and military might?"
Is it preparing for World War III?
No, not if the Chinese can help it and to understand this, lets go back for a moment to China's unique history.
For thousands of years China has been known as the Middle Kingdom and has been the most respected country in that part of the world for ages.
Until - during the first half of the 19th. century - the then reigning Qing-dynasty was brutally confronted by the might of the ruthlessly trade oriented Europeans with their gunboats.
The following decades were marked by:
- military defeat, foreign influenced civil war and occupation by outside powers.
First by the European imperialists and later by Japan.
Not until Mao Zdong's Chinese communists won the civil war in 1949 did China's victimhood finally ended.
When you are aware of this history, you will understand that the first and foremost mantra of the leadership in Beijing is:
"NEVER AGAIN!"
Next Xi Jingping and his people want their rightful place in global affairs and the respect of the international community.
Until - during the first half of the 19th. century - the then reigning Qing-dynasty was brutally confronted by the might of the ruthlessly trade oriented Europeans with their gunboats.
The following decades were marked by:
- military defeat, foreign influenced civil war and occupation by outside powers.
First by the European imperialists and later by Japan.
Not until Mao Zdong's Chinese communists won the civil war in 1949 did China's victimhood finally ended.
When you are aware of this history, you will understand that the first and foremost mantra of the leadership in Beijing is:
"NEVER AGAIN!"
Next Xi Jingping and his people want their rightful place in global affairs and the respect of the international community.
But perhaps their most important wish is the restauration of China's predominance in Asia that it enjoyed before the West intruded.
Translated this means that not only Xinjiang and Tibet are inseparable parts of modern China but also Hongkong and Taiwan.
It also means absolute mastery over its border areas ánd the adjacent seas: the East-China Sea and the South-China Sea.
There is an interesting parallel here: modern day Chinese see these waters not differently from the way Teddy Roosevelt regarded the Caribbean 120 years ago: as its own backwater!
In the beginning of my text I have mentioned a study by Harvard university into situations where a rising power threatens to displace an existing power. We live in a time with such situation. You will recall that 12 of the 16 situations studied have resulted in war.
I like to conclude my text with some thoughts about the chances of war in the Western Pacific.
Let me first say that the chance that òr China, òr the United States will deliberately ignite a war in that part of the world, is very dim.
After all, what could be gained in such a conventional war? And both parties know that the use of atomic weapons will lead to mutual assured destruction. In short: M-A-D.
A notion we remember all too well from the years of the cold war.
But there are many scenario's which could lead to war in that part of the world.
I will mention some.
FIRST there is the possibility of an accident or provocation at sea getting out of hand.
There are many American and Chinese warships sailing the busy shipping lanes of the East - and South China Seas. As you know, China has claimed possession of many small islands in these Seas and is fortifying a growing number of them with military installations, airstrips, etc.
As the US and its allies contest these claims, the US navy preserves its right to the free sea and patrols in the vicinity of these islands and the Chinese Mainland.
Translated this means that not only Xinjiang and Tibet are inseparable parts of modern China but also Hongkong and Taiwan.
It also means absolute mastery over its border areas ánd the adjacent seas: the East-China Sea and the South-China Sea.
There is an interesting parallel here: modern day Chinese see these waters not differently from the way Teddy Roosevelt regarded the Caribbean 120 years ago: as its own backwater!
In the beginning of my text I have mentioned a study by Harvard university into situations where a rising power threatens to displace an existing power. We live in a time with such situation. You will recall that 12 of the 16 situations studied have resulted in war.
I like to conclude my text with some thoughts about the chances of war in the Western Pacific.
Let me first say that the chance that òr China, òr the United States will deliberately ignite a war in that part of the world, is very dim.
After all, what could be gained in such a conventional war? And both parties know that the use of atomic weapons will lead to mutual assured destruction. In short: M-A-D.
A notion we remember all too well from the years of the cold war.
But there are many scenario's which could lead to war in that part of the world.
I will mention some.
FIRST there is the possibility of an accident or provocation at sea getting out of hand.
There are many American and Chinese warships sailing the busy shipping lanes of the East - and South China Seas. As you know, China has claimed possession of many small islands in these Seas and is fortifying a growing number of them with military installations, airstrips, etc.
As the US and its allies contest these claims, the US navy preserves its right to the free sea and patrols in the vicinity of these islands and the Chinese Mainland.
Sometimes recklessly close to the Chinese installations.
Say a Chinese warship is sent to answer this provocation and the ships collide. Accidentally or not.
One of them sinks with all hands.
Such incident could easily spark a war.
SECOND possibility is that Taiwan requests full membership of the United Nations, de facto declaring itself independent from mainland China.
Xi Jingping can never allow this to happen and retaliates for instance by blocking all traffic to and from the island.
In this way crippling Taiwan not only economically but also in its food supplies, as 70 % of all the Taiwanese consume must come from overseas.
The US is bound by treaty to come to the rescue of Taipei.
What then?
Say a Chinese warship is sent to answer this provocation and the ships collide. Accidentally or not.
One of them sinks with all hands.
Such incident could easily spark a war.
SECOND possibility is that Taiwan requests full membership of the United Nations, de facto declaring itself independent from mainland China.
Xi Jingping can never allow this to happen and retaliates for instance by blocking all traffic to and from the island.
In this way crippling Taiwan not only economically but also in its food supplies, as 70 % of all the Taiwanese consume must come from overseas.
The US is bound by treaty to come to the rescue of Taipei.
What then?
THIRD In modern-day Japan voices grow stronger and stronger to transform its Selfdefense Forces into a regular army.
Say the hardliners in Tokyo decide to reclaim one of the islands the Chinese have occupied and send naval vessels and marines to try and conquer it.
China retaliates by bombing the Japanese forces.
Also with Japan the USA is bound by treaty to come to the rescue of the Japanese forces.
What then?
China retaliates by bombing the Japanese forces.
Also with Japan the USA is bound by treaty to come to the rescue of the Japanese forces.
What then?
And then finally, the one you have been waiting for: NORTH KOREA.
The leadership in Beijing is very unhappy with Kim Yung Un, his possession of nuclear weapons and his reckless provocations. The ones befriended nation gives them headaches at their own border.
Then, why don't they get rid of the small dictator?
This is not so easy as president Trump loudly declares.
First of all, dialogue between Beijing and Pyongyang has virtually come to a halt. Its two years ago that a Chinese high official has visited Pyongyang. Since then all proposals to meet have been refused by Un.
Then - it sounds so easy - cut the oil supply from China, an absolute life's necessity for North Korea and its regime.
But if he does this, Xi knows that enormous turmoil will break lose with a completely unpredictable outcome.
Internal fighting will destabilize the country, thousands and thousands of refugees will cross the border into China.
How many atomic bombs Kim Yung Un has and where they are located, is a matter of guessing. No one knows for sure. Will rogue generals put the atomic weapons on the market and sell them to the highest bidder? With ISIS and other terrorist organisations around, a nightmare scenario for the whole world.
Then, why don't they get rid of the small dictator?
This is not so easy as president Trump loudly declares.
First of all, dialogue between Beijing and Pyongyang has virtually come to a halt. Its two years ago that a Chinese high official has visited Pyongyang. Since then all proposals to meet have been refused by Un.
Then - it sounds so easy - cut the oil supply from China, an absolute life's necessity for North Korea and its regime.
But if he does this, Xi knows that enormous turmoil will break lose with a completely unpredictable outcome.
Internal fighting will destabilize the country, thousands and thousands of refugees will cross the border into China.
How many atomic bombs Kim Yung Un has and where they are located, is a matter of guessing. No one knows for sure. Will rogue generals put the atomic weapons on the market and sell them to the highest bidder? With ISIS and other terrorist organisations around, a nightmare scenario for the whole world.
Xi will also refect on what South Korea will do when Pyongyang is in disarray.
In such situation Seoul will come under enormous pressure from its population to cross the 38th degree of latitude. To liberate their poor family members and unite both Koreas.
This will not be done by Korean soldiers only, but together with American forces.
This will mean the Americans at China's own border.
A nightmare the Chinese never can and never will allow.
A war in the Western Pacific will be as unwise as it will be undesirable. But this does not mean that it is impossible.
Thank you!
This will not be done by Korean soldiers only, but together with American forces.
This will mean the Americans at China's own border.
A nightmare the Chinese never can and never will allow.
A war in the Western Pacific will be as unwise as it will be undesirable. But this does not mean that it is impossible.
Thank you!
